Abstract: This study assesses the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on foreign trade and poverty in Côte d’Ivoire. It aims to shed light on the government’s decision to implement measures to mitigate the effects of this conflict after a quantitative evaluation of its impacts on key economic variables. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model has been constructed for this purpose for the period 2021 to 2025 with 2015 as the base year. The transmission channels of the crisis chosen are the rise in international commodity prices, hydrocarbons, foodstuffs and the fall in incoming foreign direct investment. The results show that exports and imports will fall and the poverty rate will rise. These results suggest the need to diversify the economy and promote structural transformation. In addition, measures must be taken to counteract the decline in household purchasing power.

Key words: Russian-Ukrainian crisis, foreign trade, poverty, dynamic CGE Model.
Jel classification : F14, F18

FE Doukouré Charles
Enseignant-chercheur, Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d’Economie Appliquée (ENSEA) d’Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

DIALLO Souleymane Sadio
Chercheur associé à l’Unité de Recherche en macroéconomie et modélisation du Centre Ivoirien de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (CIRES)

LAWSON SIPOAKA Assion Adjahila Clavercio,
Chercheur post-doc à l’Université Amadou Mahtar MBOW (Sénégal) & Chercheur associé au Centre de Recherche Microéconomique et de Développement (Côte d’Ivoire)