Researchers, PhD Professionals and Students in Statistics and Applied Economics, welcome to your new FORTHNIGHT PAPER section! Your window dedicated to promoting ENSEA research works.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Quantifying Price Bias in Econometric Approaches; this is the title of the Research paper for the second half of October.

This research paper was co-authored by ENSEA Lecturer-Researcher, Dr Fabrice OCHOU, and the Economics Researcher at the École des Mines de Paris, Dr Philippe QUIRION.

Abstract: ”Many econometric studies assess the impact of climate change on agriculture by assuming exogenous agricultural prices. If climate variables influence these prices, the result is a ‘price bias’, the existence of which is recognised but has never been quantified. We quantify this bias in the case of Burkina Faso, with a panel of 45 provinces and 14 years for the three most widely grown cereals: maize, millet and sorghum.
Grain yields are sensitive to weather shocks. If these shocks reduce grain yield by 10%, the price of grain increases by 2-3%. The price bias is significant, since the welfare loss is 20% to 70% higher than that calculated by assuming exogenous prices. The magnitude of the bias depends on the magnitude of the weather shock, the econometric model used and the assumptions made about production costs”


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